Is the AUD/USD exchange rate running out of steam?

steam train

In short

  1. The AUD has lost ground to the USD looking exhausted
  2. The AUD/GBP bounces higher after weeks of falling
  3. No major Australian economic data out until inflation (CPI) next week

AUD to USD exchange rates

TimeOpenHighLow
Today0.6843
Yesterday0.68520.6880
In the last week0.67290.6880
In the 3 months0.66760.6980

Will the Aussie dollar continue to fall?

Looking at the forecasts from the biggest banks in Australia, the Australian dollar is expected to fall further this year. The average bank forecast has the Australian dollar falling at least another 3-5% from its current rate above 68 cents.

The AUD/USD has now improved nearly 3% since the start of October when it hit a 10 year low below 67 cents.

While bank forecasts change all the time, the outlook for the Australian dollar has been negative for most of the last 2 years. This is because

  • The Australian economy has not been as strong as the US economy
  • As a result, interest rates are lower than the US, pressuring the AUD/USD lower
  • Australian interest rates have been falling faster than in the US

Up Next

This week, it's all about interest rates. Central banks in China and the EU meet and decide on the official interest rates for 2 of the largest economies in the world.

In Australia, there is very little market news out.

 

CountryDayEvent
ChinaMondayPBoC Interest Rate Decision
AustraliaWednesdayPMI Manufacturing data
EurozoneThursdayInterest Rate Decision

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